This Time Is Different PDF Free Download

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  5. This Time Is Different Reinhart

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This page contains links to data for all figures and tables in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, 2009. This data is also located on Carmen Reinhart's website.

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The reader will note that the data set is quite massive and can be used to study a huge range of issues. It includes the first long-dated cross-country historical data on domestic debt. (Since our book was published, other researchers, notably at the International Monetary Fund, have followed our detailed source notes to extend these series, an effort we welcome.) We also provide data for banking crises, sovereign defaults to foreign creditors, sovereign defaults on domestic debt, inflation crises and exchange rate crises, etc. It should be noted that although the appendix to our book on banking crisis dates does not separate out systemic and non-systemic banking crises, the spreadsheets posted here and used in the second half of the book definitely draw this distinction, as should be apparent from the text. This implies that for systemic banking crises, the reader should refer to the dates in these spreadsheets. The data set also includes the first long-dated cross-country data set for housing prices.

Preface

Figure P.1 Sovereign external debt, 1800-2008: Percentage of countries in external default or restructuring weighted by their share of world income

Chapter 1

Table 1.1 Defining crises: A Summary of quantitative thresholds

Table 1.2 Defining crises by events: A summary

Chapter 2

Figure 2.1 Ratios of external debt to GDP: Defaulters and nondefaulters, 1970-2001

Figure 2.2 Definition of debtors' clubs and external debt intolerance regions

Table 2.1 External debt at the time of default: Middle-income countries, 1970-2008

Table 2.2 External debt at the time of default: Frequency distribution, 1970-2008

Table 2.3 Risk and debt: Panel pairwise correlations, 1979-2001

Chapter 3

Table 3.1 Countries' share of world GDP, 1913 and 1990

Chapter 4 (Theoretical)

Chapter 5

Figure 5.1 Sovereign external debt, unweighted, 1800-2008

Figure 5.2 Sovereign external debt, weighted by share of world income, 1800-2008

Figure 5.3 Countries with banking and external debt crises, weighted by their share of world income, 1900-2008

Figure 5.4 Inflation crises and external default, 1900-2008

Figure 5.5 Commodity prices and new external defaults, 1800-2008

Figure 5.6 Net capital flows from financial centers and external defaults, 1818-1968

Figure 5.7 Duration of external default episodes, 1800-2008

Chapter 6

Figure 6.1 Spain: Defaults and loans to the Crown, 1601-1679

Table 6.1 The early external defaults: Europe, 1300-1799

Table 6.2 External default and rescheduling: Africa, Europe, and Latin America, nineteenth century

Table 6.3 Default and rescheduling: Africa and Asia, twentieth century to 2008

Table 6.4 Default and rescheduling: Europe and Latin America, twentieth century to 2008

Table 6.5 The cumulative tally of default and rescheduling: Africa and Asia, year of independence to 2008

Chapter 7

Figure 7.1 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: All countries, 1900-2007

Figure 7.2 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: Advanced economies, 1900-2007

Figure 7.3 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: Emerging market economies, 1900-2007

Figure 7.4 Share of domestic debt that is long term: All countries and Latin America, 1914-1959

Figure 7.5 Sovereign domestic debt, percent of countries in default or restructuring, 1900-2008

Table 7.1 Interest rates on domestic and external debt, 1928-1946

Table 7.2 Episodes of domestic debt default or restructuring , 1750-1921

Table 7.3 Selected episodes of domestic debt default or restructuring, late 1920s-1950s

Table 7.4 Selected episodes of domestic debt default or restructuring, 1970-2008

Chapter 8

Figure 8.1 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Eighty-nine episodes, 1827-2003

Figure 8.2 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Frequency of occurrence, 1827-2003

Figure 8.3 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Cumulative frequency of occurrence, 1827-2003

Figure 8.4 the run-up in domestic and external debt on the eve of external default: Eighty-nine episodes, 1827-2003

Figure 8.5 Domestic public debt outstanding: China, 1895-1949

Table 8.1 Debt ratios at the time of default: Selected episodes

Table 8.2 Inflation and domestic debt: Selected episodes, 1917-1994

Chapter 9

Figure 9.1 Real GDP before, during, and after domestic and external debt crises, 1800-2008

Figure 9.2 Domestic and external debt crises and GDP, 1800-2008

Figure 9.3 Consumer prices before, during, and after domestic and external debt crises, 1800-2008

Figure 9.4 Domestic and external debt crises and inflation, 1800-2008

Figure 9.5 Who is expropriated, residents or foreigners? The probability of domestic and external default, 1800-2008

Figure 9.6 The composite probability of domestic default as a share of the total probability of default, 1800-2008

Table 9.1 Output and inflation around and during debt crises

Table 9.2 Who gets expropriated, residents or foreigners? Preliminary tests for the equality of two proportions (Binomial distribution), 1800-2006

Chapter 10

Figure 10.1 Capital mobility and the incidence of banking crises: All countries, 1800-2008

Figure 10.2 Equity prices and banking crises: Forty episodes in emerging markets, 1920-2007

Figure 10.3 The number of banks in the Unites States, 1900-1945

Figure 10.4 Real GDP growth per capita (PPP basis) and banking crises: Advanced economies

Figure 10.5 Real GDP growth per capita (PPP basis) and banking crises: Emerging market economies (112 episodes)

Figure 10.6 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: All countries, 1800-1944

Figure 10.7 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: All countries, 1945-2007

Figure 10.8 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: Advanced economies, 1815-2007

Figure 10.9 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: Emerging market economies, 1873-2007

Figure 10.10 The evolution of debt following major postwar crises: Advanced and emerging markets

Table 10.1 Debt and banking crises: Africa and Asia, year of independence to 2008

Table 10.2 Debt and banking crises: Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania, year of independence to 2008

Table 10.3 Frequency of banking crises: Africa and Asia, through 2008

Table 10.4 Frequency of banking crises: Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania, through 2008

Table 10.5 Summary of the incidence and frequency of banking crises, 1800 (or year of independence) to 2008

Table 10.6 Summary of the incidence and frequency of banking crises, 1945 (or year of independence) to 2008

Table 10.7 The effect of a capital flow bonanza on the probability of a banking crisis in a sixty-six country sample, 1960-2007

Table 10.8 Cycles of real housing prices and banking crises

Table 10.9 Creative accounting? Bailout costs of banking crises

Chapter 11

Figure 11.1 Changes in the silver content of the currency: Austria and Russia during the Napoleonic Wars, 1799-1815

Figure 11.2 The march toward fiat money, Europe, 1400-1850: The average silver content of ten currencies

Table 11.1 Expropriation through currency debasement: Europe, 1258-1799

Table 11.2 Expropriation through currency debasement: Europe, nineteenth century

Chapter 12

Figure 12.1 The median inflation rate: Five-year moving average for all countries, 1500-2000

Figure 12.2 The incidence of annual inflation above 20 percent: Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America, 1800-2000

Figure 12.3 Currency crashes: The share of countries with annual depreciation rates greater than 15 percent,1800-2000

Figure 12.4 Median annual depreciation: Five-year moving average for all countries, 1800-2000

Figure 12.5 The persistence of dollarization top panel bottom panel

Figure 12.6 The de-dollarization of bank deposits: Israel, Poland, Mexico, and Pakistan, 1980-2002

Table 12.1 'Default' through inflation: Asia, Europe, and the 'New World,' 1500-1799

Table 12.2 'Default' through inflation: Africa and Asia, 1800-2008

Table 12.3 'Default' through inflation: Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania, 1800-2008

Chapter 13

Figure 13.1 The proportion of countries with banking crises, 1900-2008, weighted by their share of world income

Figure 13.2 Real housing prices: United States, 1891-2008

Figure 13.3 Real housing prices and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies

Figure 13.4 Real equity prices and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies

Figure 13.5 Ratio of current account balance to GDP on the eve of postwar banking crises: Advanced economies

Figure 13.6 Growth in real per capita GDP (PPP basis) and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies

Figure 13.7 Real central government debt and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies

Table 13.1 Post-World War II bank-centered financial crises in advanced economies

Chapter 14

Figure 14.1 Cycles of past and ongoing real house prices and banking crises

Figure 14.2 Cycles of past and ongoing real equity prices and banking crises

Figure 14.3 Cycles of past unemployment and banking crises

Figure 14.4 Cycles of past real per capita GDP and banking crises

Figure 14.5 The cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following past banking crises

Figure 14.6 Cycles of Institutional Investor Sovereign ratings and past banking crises

Figure 14.7 The duration of major financial crises: Fourteen Great Depression episodes versus fourteen post-World War II episodes (Duration of the fall in output per capita)

Figure 14.8 The duration of major financial crises: Fourteen Great Depression episodes versus fourteen post-World War II episodes (number of years for output per capita to return to its pre-crisis level)

Figure 14.9 The cumulative increase in real public debt three and six years following the onset of the Great Depression in 1929: Selected countries

This Time Is Different PDF Free Download Books

Table 14.1 Fiscal deficits as a percentage of GDP

This Time Is Different Pdf Free Download Windows 10

Chapter 15

Figure 15.1 Percentage change in real housing prices, 2002-2006

Table 15.1 Global banking crises, 1890-2008: Contagion or common fundamentals?

Chapter 16

Figure 16.1 The proportion of countries with systemic banking crises (weighted by their share of world income) and U.S. corporate speculative-grade default rates, 1919-2008

Figure 16.2 Varieties of crises: World aggregate, 1900-2008

Figure 16.3 Varieties of crises: Advanced economies aggregate, 1900-2008

Figure 16.4 Varieties of crises: Africa, 1900-2008

Figure 16.5 Varieties of crises: Asia, 1800-2008

Figure 16.6 Varieties of crises: Latin America, 1800-2008

Figure 16.7 Global stock markets during global crises: The composite real stock price index

Figure 16.8 Real per capita GDP during global financial crises: Multicountry aggregates (PPP weighted)

Figure 16.9 The contracting spiral of world trade month by month, January 1929-June 1933

This

Figure 16.10 World export growth, 1928-2009

Figure 16.11 The collapse of exports, 1929-1932
Figure 16.12 The sequencing of crises: A prototype

Table 16.1 Indexes of total building activity in selected countries

This Time Is Different PDF Free Download 64 Bit

Table 16.2 Unemployment rates for selected countries, 1929-1932

Chapter 17

This Time Is Different Book

Figure 17.1 Change in Institutional Investor Credit Ratings of Sixty-Six Countries, 1979-2008

This Time Is Different Reinhart

Table 17.1 Early warning indicators of banking and currency crises: A summary

Table 17.2 Institutional Investor ratings of sixty-six countries: Upgrade or demotion, 1979-2008