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P E S T L E - City of Swan pdf document free download and online preview. Black Swan: Impact of Highly Improbable Taleb, Nassim Nicholas Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Download Free eBook:Mernissi Fatima - La terrazza proibita - Free chm, pdf ebooks download. The Black Swan book summary and review.

Editor’s Note: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of “The Black Swan,” has published a new book about politics and finance titled “Skin in the Game.” PBS NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman spoke with Taleb about the book, the 2008 financial crisis, and President Donald Trump. Their conversation is presented here, edited for length and clarity. Watch the full segment on Thursday’s NewsHour program.

PAUL SOLMAN: I first interviewed you in 2006. “Black Swan” hadn’t even come out yet. Then came “Black Swan,” the book. Then came the crash of ’08. You became famous for warning people, having warned people, about extreme events and how cataclysmic they could be, right?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: The reason people paid attention to my work was because I had skin the game at the time. I was involved. I was taking risks.

“People don’t understand that we’re not learning from previous crises to force people to have skin in the game…”

PAUL SOLMAN: You were a trader.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I was involved. I was eating my risk. Owning my own risk, as I write in the book.

PAUL SOLMAN: Are there black swans on the horizon now? What are you betting on?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: The point is, the system is fragile because we had a lot of debt. Plus, there are a bunch of things that have been developing that I’m not comfortable with, developing over, say, the least 20 years, but mostly the last 10 years, I’m not comfortable with.

PAUL SOLMAN: They are?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: It’s that rise of the class, the no-skin-in-the-game class in decision-making.

PAUL SOLMAN: The no-skin-in-the-game class?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Exactly. Decision-makers who can drag you into intervention, can drag you into policies that cosmetically feel good, but eventually, somebody pays a price and it’s not them.

There are two levels. The first one, and the most obvious one, is people who intervene in Iraq, thinking, “Hey, we’re going to bring democracy,” or some abstract concept. The thing falls apart, and they walk away from it. They’re not committed with living or owning the toy. They broke it. They don’t own it. Then, the same people make the same mistake with Libya and then now currently with Syria, the warmongers. In the past, historically, warmongers were soldiers. You could not rise in a senate if you didn’t have war experience. [Today if] you have a class of people who inflict risk on others without being affected by the outcome, that class of people is going to disrupt the system, causing some kind of collapse.

PAUL SOLMAN: Do you see some kind of collapse on the horizon?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I can see some severe distortions now from that class of people deciding to “fix” things and, effectively, not paying the price.

PAUL SOLMAN: What risk are they posing to us now?

“There’s a riot against the class of over-educated, Harvard, Ivy-league, Cambridge, Oxford, Ecole Normale in France — this whole class of people is no longer going to be able to run our affairs.”

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Well, the system is loaded with debt that has benefited these bankers. The chairman of a certain bank now is making $23 million a year again in bonuses…. So, people don’t understand that we’re not learning from previous crises to force people to have skin in the game, so they can avoid stashing these risks.

Paul Solman: But if I’m a manager, CEO of a company and I have stock options, then I am punished if the stock goes down.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: No, not really, because you still have upside, net you have upside.

PAUL SOLMAN: You mean, I’m only going to be compensated, I’m never going to have money taken away from me.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Exactly, whereas the taxpayer only has a downside of that trade. The taxpayer will never have the benefit of what’s going on, but we pay the price as taxpayers.

PAUL SOLMAN: Because we’re going to bail them out, you mean?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Of course, so we are really the people who are owning the risk.

PAUL SOLMAN: So, what’s the cost?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Let me take you back to the “Black Swan” and an idea I continued. In the “Black Swan,” I asked myself, “There are experts who are experts, and experts who aren’t. What marker is there? How would we know? We know very well that a pilot, a plane pilot, is an expert. Why, because there’s skin in the game, there’s some kind of contact with reality. A dentist is an expert. Your tailor is an expert. But you can never tell if an employee of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is an expert. As a matter of fact, I’m certain that they’re not experts. Economic forecasters, [but] they are not experts. So, they are what I call the “faux experts.”

We know where they are. It’s very simply someone who makes a decision that doesn’t have visible consequences for the person to be affected. And that’s what I call the no-skin-in-the-game expert.

PAUL SOLMAN: And it’s to the reaction against those experts that you attribute to Brexit and Donald Trump?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Yes, of that rise of the class of pseudo experts running our affairs.

PAUL SOLMAN: My initial question was, “What black swans do you see now?” You said, ‘Hey, too many people with not enough skin in the game, is setting us up for…’ What?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: For a riot, because people understand. They have the Web, they have Twitter, they have access.

Trump “got the disease right. Now whether he’s going to fix it, I don’t know.”

PAUL SOLMAN: What are they going to do?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: They are rioting. They elected Trump, they are electing all these governments… There’s a riot against the class of over-educated, Harvard, Ivy-league, Cambridge, Oxford, Ecole Normale in France, this whole class of people is no longer going to be able to run our affairs… The system laden with debt and with pseudo experts will collapse eventually.

PAUL SOLMAN: So, that’s the black swan, a collapse.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: A collapse, because we haven’t really remedied what happened in 2008. We haven’t fixed anything from 2008, what caused 2008. There’s still a lot of debt in the system… Now it may be, miraculously, under Trump, we may have a second wind and America may rise again, and pay the debt. Hopefully that would work.

PAUL SOLMAN: You mean huge economic growth?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: That’s my hope.

PAUL SOLMAN: Were you in favor of Donald Trump?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I was not against. First of all I gave him higher odds, because of this. I was writing the chapter on the I-Y-I, the Intellectual Yet Idiot, and I was describing the mechanism. And I said people are rioting against that. And I said that anyone who makes more sense to your Chinese grocery store owner, just off the ship, more than to an intellectual, would win. That’s what happened. I gave Trump close to 50 percent chance at a time when it was not possible. Mostly for technical reasons, and also because I believe that you can see that he makes a lot of sense to merchants, to small business owners, but he doesn’t make sense to intellectuals. So, he has to be that person. But anyone would have been elected, had they played that same platform, of coming in and trying to address in simplistic, but very clear, no nonsense terms to the general public.

PAUL SOLMAN: By saying the people who have been running the show have been leading you astray.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: He got the disease right. Now whether he’s going to fix it, I don’t know.

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

Unlike the earlier and broader 'black swan problem' in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's 'black swan theory' refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1]:xxi More technically, in the scientific monograph 'Silent Risk',[2] Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as 'stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability'.[2]

Background[edit]

The phrase 'black swan' derives from a Latin expression; its oldest known occurrence is from the 2nd-century Roman poet Juvenal's characterization of something being 'rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno' ('a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan').[3]:165 When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the metaphor lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the logic of any system of thought, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.

Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent.

However, in 1697, Dutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swans, in Western Australia.[5] The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century, John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.[6]

Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as 'black swans'—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 11, 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events.[1]:prologue

Taleb asserts:[7]

What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme 'impact', and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.

Identifying[edit]

Based on the author's criteria:

  1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
  2. The event has a major effect.
  3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.

Coping with[edit]

The practical aim of Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict events which are unpredictable, but to build robustness against negative events while still exploiting positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to unpredictable losses. On the subject of business, and quantitative finance in particular, Taleb critiques the widespread use of the normal distribution model employed in financial engineering, calling it a Great Intellectual Fraud. Taleb elaborates the robustness concept as a central topic of his later book, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.

In the second edition of The Black Swan, Taleb provides 'Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society'.[1]:374–78[8]

Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to 'avoid being the turkey' by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to 'turn the Black Swans white'.[9]

Epistemological approach[edit]

Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, 'the fourth quadrant'.[10]

Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. Scheduling a ged test. These limitations are twofold: philosophical (mathematical) and empirical (human known epistemic biases). The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori, or an extrapolating theory; accordingly predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness.[citation needed]

According to Taleb,[11] thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as Hume, Mill, and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. The central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is that it is high-profile. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected — yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight.

One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players sometimes assume normal distributions when using value at risk models, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.[12]

Taleb said 'I don't particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and jumps; all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the 'normal,' particularly with 'bell curve' methods of inference that tell you close to nothing. Why? Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed uncertainty. Its nickname in this book is GIF, Great Intellectual Fraud.'

More generally, decision theory, which is based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are 'outside the model'. For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987), but might not model the breakdown of markets following the 9/11 attacks. A fixed model considers the 'known unknowns', but ignores the 'unknown unknowns', made famous by a statement of Donald Rumsfeld.[13] The term 'unknown unknowns' appeared in a 1982 New Yorker article on the aerospace industry, which cites the example of metal fatigue, the cause of crashes in Comet airliners in the 1950s.[14]

Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[15]

Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.

Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.[7]:p. xvii[16]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ abcTaleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010) [2007]. The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable (2nd ed.). London: Penguin. ISBN978-0-14103459-1. Retrieved 23 May 2012.
  2. ^ abTaleb, Nassim Nicholas (2015), Doing Statistics Under Fat Tails: The Program, retrieved 20 January 2016
  3. ^Puhvel, Jaan (Summer 1984). 'The Origin of Etruscan tusna ('Swan')'. The American Journal of Philology. Johns Hopkins University Press. 105 (2): 209–212. doi:10.2307/294875. JSTOR294875.
  4. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 'Opacity'. Fooled by randomness. Retrieved 20 January 2016.
  5. ^'Black Swan Unique to Western Australia', Parliament, AU: Curriculum, archived from the original on 13 September 2009.
  6. ^Hammond, Peter (October 2009), 'Adapting to the entirely unpredictable: black swans, fat tails, aberrant events, and hubristic models', WERI Bulletin, UK: Warwick (1), retrieved 20 January 2016
  7. ^ abTaleb, Nassim Nicholas (22 April 2007). 'The Black Swan: Chapter 1: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'. The New York Times. Retrieved 20 January 2016.
  8. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (7 April 2009), Ten Principles for a Black Swan Robust World(PDF), Fooled by randomness, retrieved 20 January 2016
  9. ^Webb, Allen (December 2008). 'Taking improbable events seriously: An interview with the author of The Black Swan (Corporate Finance)'(PDF). McKinsey Quarterly. McKinsey. p. 3. Archived from the original(Interview; PDF) on 7 September 2012. Retrieved 23 May 2012. Taleb: In fact, I tried in The Black Swan to turn a lot of black swans white! That’s why I kept going on and on against financial theories, financial-risk managers, and people who do quantitative finance.
  10. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (September 2008), The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics, Third Culture, The Edge Foundation, retrieved 23 May 2012
  11. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (April 2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (1st ed.). London: Penguin. p. 400. ISBN1-84614045-5. Retrieved 23 May 2012.
  12. ^Trevir Nath, 'Fat Tail Risk: What It Means and Why You Should Be Aware Of It', NASDAQ, 2015
  13. ^DoD News Briefing - Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myer, February 12, 2002 11:30 AM EDTArchived 3 September 2014 at the Wayback Machine
  14. ^Newhouse, J. (14 June 1982), 'A reporter at large: a sporty game: i-betting the company', The New Yorker, pp. 48–105
  15. ^Gelman, Andrew (April 2007). 'Nassim Taleb's 'The Black Swan''. Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. Columbia University. Retrieved 23 May 2012.
  16. ^Gangahar, Anuj (16 April 2008). 'Market Risk: Mispriced risk tests market faith in a prized formula'. The Financial Times. New York. Archived from the original on 20 April 2008. Retrieved 23 May 2012.

Bibliography[edit]

  • Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010) [2007], The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable (2nd ed.), London: Penguin, ISBN978-0-14103459-1, retrieved 26 February 2017.
  • Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (September 2008), 'The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics', Third Culture, The Edge Foundation, retrieved 23 May 2012.

External links[edit]

  • David, Dr. Gil, Black Swans in the Cyber Domain, Israel defense, archived from the original on 31 October 2012 No content .
  • McGee, Suzanne (5 December 2012), Black Swan Stocks Could Make Your Portfolio a Turkey, Fiscal Times, CNBC, retrieved 20 January 2016.
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=887174875'

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable PDF book (Incerto) (Incerto Series) Read Online or Free Download in ePUB, PDF or MOBI eBooks. Published in 2007 the book become immediate popular and critical acclaim in non fiction, economics books. The main characters of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable novel are John, Emma. Download full The Black Swan Book or read online anytime anywhere, Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle. Click Get Books and find your favorite books in the online library. Create free account to access unlimited books, fast download and ads free! We cannot guarantee that The Black Swan book is in the library. Styles Gabber, Speedcore, Terror, Flashcore, Breakcore Date Quality MP3 320 kbps Label Speedcore Worldwide Cat SWAN-091Lysergide - The Black Dahlia 5:20 Lysergide - Nasty Pasty 4. The phrase 'black swan' derives from a Latin expression; its oldest known occurrence is from the 2nd-century Roman poet Juvenal's characterization in his Satire VI of something being 'rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno' ('a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan'). Various - The Black Swan Theory Vol.

1-Page PDF Summary of The Black Swan

Black Swans are extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. These include positive Black Swans, like the invention of the Internet and the discovery of antibiotics, as well as negative Black Swans, like the 2008 recession.

Black Swans compel people to explain why they happened—to show, after the fact, that they were indeed predictable. Taleb’s thesis, however, is that Black Swans, by their very nature, are always unpredictable. Furthermore, because of our cognitive biases, we’re more vulnerable than ever to misunderstanding Black Swans and their impact.

Learn what Black Swans are, why we’re susceptible to them, and how best to prepare yourself for the unpredictable.

(continued)...

Difficulties of Prediction

The central problem with experts is their uncritical belief in the possibility of prediction, despite the mountain of evidence that indicates prediction is a fool’s errand. Some key illustrations of the futility of prediction include:

Discoveries

Most groundbreaking discoveries occur by happenstance—luck—rather than careful and painstaking work. The quintessential example is the discovery of penicillin. Discoverer Alexander Fleming wasn’t researching antibiotics; rather, he was studying the properties of a particular bacterium. He left a stack of cultures lying out in his laboratory while he went on vacation, and when he returned he found that a bacteria-killing mold had formed on one of the cultures. Voilá—the world’s first antibiotic.

Dynamical Systems

A dynamical system is one in which an array of inputs affect each other. Whereas prediction in a system that contains, say, two inputs, is a simple affair—one need only account for the qualities and behavior of those two inputs—prediction in a system that contains, say, five hundred billion inputs is effectively impossible.

The most famous illustration of a dynamical system’s properties is the “butterfly effect.” This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. The “butterfly effect” describes the possibility that the flutter of a butterfly’s wings can, a few weeks later and many miles distant, cause a tornado.

Predicting the Past

The past itself is as unknowable as the future. Because of how complex the world is and how a single event could be influenced by any number of tiny causes, we cannot reverse engineer causes for events.

An example should help illustrate. Think of an ice cube sitting on a table. Imagine the shape of the puddle that ice cube will make as it melts.

The Black Swan Pdf Download

Now think of a puddle on the table and try to imagine how that puddle got there.

The Black Swan PDF Free Download For Windows 7

When historians propose causes for certain historical events, they’re looking at puddles and imagining ice cubes (or a spilled glass of water, or some other cause). The problem is that the sheer number of possible causes for a puddle—or a historical event—render any ascription of cause suspect.

If You Can’t Predict, How Do You Deal with Uncertainty?

Although Taleb is far more concerned with explaining why prediction is impossible than he is with proposing alternatives or solutions, he does offer some strategies for dealing with radical uncertainty.

1) Don’t Sweat the Small Predictions

When it comes to low-stakes, everyday predictions—about the weather, say, or the outcome of a baseball game—there’s no harm in indulging our natural penchant for prediction: If we’re wrong, the repercussions are minimal. It’s when we make large-scale predictions and incur real risk on their basis that we get into trouble.

2) Maximize Possibilities for Positive Black Swans

Although the most memorable Black Swans are typically the negatively disruptive ones, Black Swans can also be serendipitous. (Shortform note: Love at first sight is an example of a serendipitous Black Swan.)

Two strategies for opening ourselves up to positive Black Swans are (1) sociability and (2) proactiveness when presented with an opportunity. Sociability puts us in the company of others who may be in a position to help us—we never know where a casual conversation might lead. And proactiveness—for example, taking up a successful acquaintance on an invitation to have coffee—ensures we’ll never miss our lucky break.

3) Adopt the “Barbell Strategy”

When Taleb was a trader, he pursued an idiosyncratic investment strategy to inoculate himself against a financial Black Swan. He devoted 85%–90% of his portfolio to extremely safe instruments (Treasury bills, for example) and made extremely risky bets—in venture-capital portfolios, for example—with the remaining 10%–15%. (Another variation on the strategy is to have a highly speculative portfolio but to insure yourself against losses greater than 15%.) The high-risk portion of Taleb’s portfolio was highly diversified: He wanted to place as many small bets as possible to increase the odds of a Black Swan paying off in his favor.

The “barbell strategy” is designed to minimize the pain of a negative Black Swan while, potentially, reaping a positive Black Swan’s benefits. If the market collapses, a person pursuing this strategy isn’t hurt beneath the “floor” of the safe investments (say, 85%), but if the market explodes, he has a chance to capitalize by virtue of the speculative bets.

4) Distinguish Between Positive Contingencies and Negative Ones

Different areas of society have different exposure to Black Swans, both positive and negative. For example, scientific research and moviemaking are “positive Black Swan areas”—catastrophes are rare, and there is always the possibility of smashing success. The stock market or catastrophe insurance, meanwhile, are “negative Black Swan areas”—upsides are relatively modest compared to the possibility of financial ruin.

Suffice it to say, we should take more risks in a positive Black Swan area than in a negative Black Swan one.

5) Prepare, Don’t Predict

Because Black Swans are, by definition, unpredictable, we’re better off preparing for the widest range of contingencies than predicting specific events.

That’s because, though Black Swans themselves can never be predicted, their effects can be. For example, no one can predict when an earthquake will strike, but one can know what its effects will be and prepare adequately to handle them.

The same goes for an economic recession. No one can predict precisely when one will occur, but, using the “barbell strategy” or some other means of mitigating risk, we can at least be prepared for one.

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The Black Swan: Second Edition

The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility'

byNassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 2010-05-11
  • Pages : 480
  • ISBN : 0679604189
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

byNassim Nicholas Taleb,Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PH.D., MBA

  • Publisher : Random House Incorporated
  • Release : 2007
  • Pages : 366
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

Incerto

Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game

byNassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Random House Trade
  • Release : 2021-05-04
  • Pages : 1872
  • ISBN : 059324365X
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

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Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game

byNassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 2021-05-04
  • Pages : 1872
  • ISBN : 0593243668
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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The landmark five-book series—all together in one ebook bundle The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This ebook bundle includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

SUMMARY - The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • Publisher : Shortcut Edition
  • Release : 2021-06-17
  • Pages : 35
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover a new way of understanding uncertainty through the concept of the Black Swan. You will also discover : that the Black Swan is a surprising, unpredictable event with far-reaching consequences; why you fail to make predictions; that you are wrong to trust those you consider to be experts in their field; that you can take advantage of uncertainty. The world is made of uncertainties, but man continues to seek to understand and predict it. The more informed society is, the more expert it thinks it is and the more capable it is of understanding the world. However, when it discovers that not all swans are white, its very notion of knowledge is turned upside down. This event, which was very unlikely and with strong consequences, is called by Nassim Nicholas Taleb the 'Black Swan'. It can lead to success or failure and can make history. How can you approach this phenomenon and take advantage of it in your personal life? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Stalking the Black Swan

Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility

byKenneth A. Posner

  • Publisher : Columbia University Press
  • Release : 2010
  • Pages : 267
  • ISBN : 9780231150484
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called 'specialty finance' sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard?many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the 'Black Swans' of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal?our computers and our minds?Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

  • Publisher : CRC Press
  • Release : 2017-07-05
  • Pages : 92
  • ISBN : 1351351192
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Summary)

  • Publisher : QuickRead.com
  • Release : 2021
  • Pages : 329
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions.

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review

byInstaread

  • Publisher : Instaread
  • Release : 2015-12-14
  • Pages : 38
  • ISBN : 1944195491
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls “Black Swans,” are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

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The Black Swan of Paris

The heart-breaking, gripping historical thriller for fans of Heather Morris

byKaren Robards

  • Publisher : Hachette UK
  • Release : 2020-06-30
  • Pages : 480
  • ISBN : 1529338220
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A world at war. A beautiful young star. A mission no one expected. 'A truly outstanding novel, brilliantly written, that captured me and held me in its grip from page one. The Black Swan of Paris reminds us of the power of love, hope and courage' Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, her position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve is shaken. She knows it won't be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary - including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected - and in time to save Lillian's life. For fans of Danielle Steele's The Spy, Jane Thynne's Black Roses and Heather Morris' The Tattooist of Auschwitz, this exquisite novel illuminates three women's strength, courage and capacity for unconditional love. PRAISE FOR THE BLACK SWAN OF PARIS 'Emotional and powerful' Pam Jenoff, bestselling author of The Lost Girls of Paris 'Beautifully written and completely absorbing. ' Noelle Salazar, bestselling author of The Flight Girls 'An extraordinarily suspenseful, emotional read' Kelly Rimmer, bestselling author of The Things We Cannot Say Reader Reviews: 'Perfect! This novel was the first I've read by this author but I will definitely be reading more of her work. It was pacy, exciting, heart-breaking in places, with a truly believable romance sub-plot that was centred around characters I cared about.' 'A high octane read which is a real page turner and captures the heightened tension of the war perfectly. A brilliant read that I would recommend.' 'This is an excellent WWII historical fiction novel and it is for anyone that loves a good plot, suspense, and anyone that loves to read about the impressive underdog of the Resistance in France during the Occupation.' Robards paints a beautiful capture of the true Parisian Paris during WWII. Her first historical fiction should be praised for the attention to detail, emotional and action packed novel.'

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

byNassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan Pdf Free Download Windows 10

  • Publisher : Penguin Books, Limited (UK)
  • Release : 2011
  • Pages : 444
  • ISBN : 9781846145650
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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A slipcased hardback edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's bestselling masterpiece, with the original first Penguin edition artwork.What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Odile

  • Publisher : Enchanted Lands Romance
  • Release : 2019-01-25
  • Pages : 266
  • ISBN : 9781790357253
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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Pale, cold mistress of the serpent's lair, blood red lips and coal black hair... Enter the world of the Black Swan, a dark and seductive tale where things are not always as they seem. Odile is the reviled villainess of Aarroughac, a castle inhabited by the evil wizard, Count Rothebart. After a sinister magic sweeps through the land and results in death, Odile is accused of the crime. Von Rothebart vanishes, leaving her to face the wrath of an entire kingdom alone until a mysterious stranger with powers of his own comes along. With vengeance as his guide, Lord Azarus di Caspari hunts an ancient curse. When he crosses paths with the Black Swan of legend, he immediately makes up his mind to use the temptress's magic for his own devices. But when Azarus learns that the story of the sorceress might not be true, disappointment gives way to desire. Spells are cast and secrets are revealed, but can love exist in the shadow of two dark hearts such as theirs?Are the tales of the Black Swan true? Is she a murderess and an evil sorceress to be feared or is she the only thing standing between true evil and the fall of a kingdom? Only time will tell as the magical story of the Black Swan unfolds. Odile, Legend of the Black Swan is a fantasy, fairy tale romance inspired by the legendary ballet, Swan Lake. An Enchanted Lands Romance.18 and up. This story involves some intimate scenes and adult situations. If such material offends you, please don't buy this book.

The Black Swan

  • Publisher : Macat Library
  • Release : 2017-07-05
  • Pages : 92
  • ISBN : 9781912128204
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences - what he calls Black Swans - that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

Quicklet on Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan (CliffNotes-like Book Summary and Analysis)

  • Publisher : Hyperink Inc
  • Release : 2012-07-30
  • Pages : 36
  • ISBN : 1614646848
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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ABOUT THE BOOK The first edition of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s second mainstream work, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, was published by Random House in April of 2007. In this book Taleb says many, many things; he warns against the dangers of ignoring outliers and trusting experts; he gives advice on how to position oneself to take advantage of the unexpected; he creates a fictional narrative about an author’s rise to literary stardom; and he draws upon the work of some of his favorite (as well as his most despised) thinkers in the fields of philosophy, mathematics, and psychology. But the thing about The Black Swan that is most likely to grab the contemporary reader’s attention is its apparent prediction of the financial collapse that occurred only a few months after its publication. Though Taleb argues against the validity of economic forecasts, he makes some eerily specific critiques of the banking industry, “just months before the subprime fiasco rocked global markets and led banks to announce at least $208 billion worth of writedowns,” according to Bloomberg News. Any criticisms of The Black Swan seem to fade given the uncanny timing of its release. In the wake of the financial crisis, while other economists cringed at their lack of foresight, Taleb was hailed as a prophet. EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK While we might prefer to believe that the world operates in a linear fashion, Taleb assures us this is not so. Says Taleb, “[N]onlinear relationships are ubiquitous in life. Linear relationships are truly the exception; we focus on them in classrooms and textbooks because they are easier to understand (89).” Chapter Eight Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck In Chapter Eight, Taleb introduces the concept of silent evidence. Like the antilibrary, silent evidence emphasizes what is not known over what is. Essentially, silent evidence are those instances which do not produce a Black Swan and thus do not receive acknowledgement. As an example, Taleb points to the many, many talented writers who never get their big break and whose work, therefore, is never inducted into the literary canon. Since such works are generally inaccessible, we tend to discount their relevance and focus solely on the Black Swan works that did, through some combination of talent and good fortune, secure their place in literature. In essence we tend to give disproportionate weight to the stories of those who succeed in some manner or another -- by making a medical breakthrough, by becoming a millionaire, or, in some cases, by simply surviving. The tendency to ignore silent evidence (the failures), Taleb says, results in a distortion bias, “the difference between what you see and what is there... Buy the book to continue reading! Follow @hyperink on Twitter! Visit us at www.facebook.com/hyperink! Go to www.hyperink.com to join our newsletter and get awesome freebies! CHAPTER OUTLINE Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan + Introduction to The Black Swan + Introducing Nassim Nicholas Taleb + The Black Swan: An Introductory Overview + Chapter Summaries + ...and much more

The Black Swan

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 199?
  • Pages : 178
  • ISBN : 9876543210XXX
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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The Black Swan

  • Publisher : Open Road Media
  • Release : 2013-02-26
  • Pages : 338
  • ISBN : 1480403822
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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The riveting Cornwall saga continues with the story of Lucie Lansdon, the sole witness to a horrifying crime much too close to home . . . After her father is murdered, Lucie Lansdon’s eyewitness testimony sends a fanatical Irish terrorist to the gallows. Fate claims another victim when Lucie receives news that her fiancé has died in Africa. Reeling from the deaths of the two men she loved most, and convinced that her life is cursed, Lucie finally finds happiness when she marries the gentle Roland Fitzgerald. But her domestic life with Roland and his sister is not all it should be. Someone is watching—and waiting to carry out a cunningly orchestrated plan of retribution. As Lucie’s life is threatened and she begins to doubt her sanity, she’s visited by someone she believed lost to her forever. On the verge of uncovering the truth about a long-ago night, she places her trust in the wrong person.

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Key Takeaways, Analysis and Review

byInstaread

  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 2015-12-14
  • Pages : 40
  • ISBN : 9781522762928
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls 'Black Swans,' are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized... Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan: Overview of the book Important People Key Takeaways Analysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Black Swan Green

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2007
  • Pages : 371
  • ISBN : 9780340822807
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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The dazzling novel from critically-acclaimed David Mitchell. Shortlisted for the 2006 Costa Novel Award Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize 2006 January, 1982. Thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor - covert stammerer and reluctant poet - anticipates a stultifying year in his backwater English village. But he hasn't reckoned with bullies, simmering family discord, the Falklands War, a threatened gypsy invasion and those mysterious entities known as girls. Charting thirteen months in the black hole between childhood and adolescence, this is a captivating novel, wry, painful and vibrant with the stuff of life.

The Blank Swan

  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2010-05-05
  • Pages : 496
  • ISBN : 9780470661765
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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'Elie Ayache is the only person to present arguments about The Black Swan and rare events that I had not thought about. He does what philosophical inquiry has always done: to go the extra mile and look at the world in a deeply philosophical way.' Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD, author of The Black Swan, Distinguished Professor, New York University Polytechnic Institute & Principal, Universa Investments. 'Elie Ayache has uniquely straddled the down-to-earth world of money and complex financial derivatives and the abstract world of the mind and philosophy. Insightful and insane in equal measures, this book is not an easy read. I wouldn't recommend this for holiday reading on the beach but perhaps for while sitting in front of a log fire with a large Scotch, or probably several.??? Paul Wilmott, author of Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance October 19th 1987 was a day of huge change for the global finance industry. On this day the stock market crashed, the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes formula failed and volatility smiles were born, and on this day Elie Ayache began his career, on the trading floor of the French Futures and Options Exchange. Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 - you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework. The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets – presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events – white and black swans alike – , i.e. the very category of prediction. In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event from Henri Bergson to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance. This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything, derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. The book also establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market.'

The Black Swan

  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 2010
  • Pages : 30
  • ISBN : 9781921136566
  • Language : En, Es, Fr & De
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A black swan escapes from a cage and flies away to alight at a village by a lake. The villagers there believe that birds are harbingers of good fortune, and each year they build nests beside the lake to lure them. They ask the swan to stay and incubate an egg which was found in one of the nests.